Dmitry Orlov

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Dmitry Orlov (born 1962) is an engineer and a writer on subjects related to "potential economic, ecological and political decline and collapse in the United States, something he has called “permanent crisis”.^[1] Orlov believes collapse will be the result of huge military budgets, government deficits, an unresponsive political system and declining oil production. ^[2]

Orlov was born in Leningrad (now Saint Petersburg) and moved to the United States at the age of 12. He has a BS in Computer Engineering and an MA in Applied Linguistics. He was an eyewitness to the collapse of theSoviet Union over several extended visits to his Russian homeland between the late 1980s and mid-1990s.^[3]

In 2005 and 2006 Orlov wrote a number of articles comparing the collapse-preparedness of the U.S. and theSoviet Union published on small “peak oil” related sites.^[4] Orlov’s article "Closing the 'Collapse Gap': the USSR was better prepared for collapse than the US" was very popular at EnergyBulletin.Net.^[5][6]

In 2006 Orlov published an online manifesto, "The New Age of Sail." In 2007 he and his wife sold their apartment in Boston and bought a sailboat, fitted with solar panels and six months supply of propane, and capable of storing a large quantity of food stuffs. He calls it a “survival capsule.” He uses a bicycle for transportation. Having bartered vodka for necessities during one of trips to the post-collapse Russia, he says "When faced with a collapsing economy, one should stop thinking of wealth in terms of money." ^[7]

He continues to write regularly on his “Club Orlov” blog and at EnergyBulletin.Net.^[8]

[edit]Reinventing Collapse

Cover of Reinventing Collapse

Orlov’s book Reinventing Collapse:The Soviet Example and American Prospects, published in 2008, further details his views.^[9] The New Yorker's Ben McGrath writes that Orlov describes "superpower collapse soup" common to both the U.S. and the Soviet Union: “a severe shortfall in the production of crude oil, a worsening foreign-trade deficit, an oversized military budget, and crippling foreign debt.” He believes the U.S. will fare worse because Americans have fewer backup plans. Orlov told interviewer McGrath that in recent months financial professionals have begun to make up more of his audience, joining "back-to-the-land types," "peak oilers," and those sometimes derisively called “doomers."

Author James Howard Kunstler, who has been described as “one of Orlov's greatest fans” but denies he is a “complete ‘collapsitarian’”^[7], described the book as an “exceptionally clear, authoritative, witty, and original view of our prospects.”^[10]

In his review of the book, commentator Thom Hartmann writes that Orlov holds that the Soviet Union hit a “soft crash” because centralized planning, housing, agriculture, and transportation left an infrastructure private citizens could co-opt so that no one had to pay rent or go homeless and people showed up for work, even when they were not paid. He believes the U.S. will have a hard crash, more like Germany’s Weimar Republic of the 1920s. This is partially true because the U.S. is so much more dependent on imported oil.^[11]

Writing on Atlanta’s Creative Loafing, Wayne Davis considers Orlovs views and anecdotal stories to be an easy read for a serious subject. Orlov gives practical advise, like when to start accumulating goods for exchange purposes and the need to buy goods that would sustain local communities - "hand tools, simple medications (and morphine), guns and ammo, sharpening stones, bicycles (and lots of tires with patch kits), etc." Orlov writes: “Much of the transformation is psychological and involves letting go of many notions that we have been conditioned to accept unquestioningly. In order to adapt, you will need plenty of free time. Granting yourself this time requires a leap of faith: you have to assume the future has already arrived.” He also advises: “Beyond the matter of personal safety, you will need to understand who has what you need and how to get it from them.”^[12]

The EnergyBulletin.Net review states that “Orlov's main goal is to get Americans to understand what it will mean to live without an economy, when cash is virtually useless and most people won't be getting any income anyway because they'll be out of a job.”^[13] The review by author Carolyn Baker, PhD, notes that Orlov emphasizes that "when faced with a collapsing economy, one should stop thinking of wealth in terms of money." Physical resources and assets, as well as relationships and connections are worth more than cash and those who know how to "do it themselves" and operate on the margins of society will do better than those whose incomes and lifestyles have plummeted.^[14]

Not all commentary has been favorable. In a 2009 article in Mother Jones Virginia Heffernan labels Orlov a “collapsitarianism” which she believes involves “a desire for complete economic meltdown” and writes that Orlov espouses “bourgeois survivalism.”^[15]

[edit]References

[edit]External links

• Club Orlov, Orlov's blog website with economic collapse commentary.
• Photograph of Dmitry Orlov.
• Russia Today interview with Orlov, March 2009 (also on Youtube).
• Dmitry Orlov: Social Collapse Best Practices, The Long Now Foundation, at Fora.Tv (Short version on Youtube).
• Dmitry Orlov Interview on KPFA’s “Guns and Butter”, August 5, 2009.
• Max Keiser interview of Dmitry Orlov, August 1, 2009.
• Video: Dmitry Orlov – Seizing the Mid-Collapse Moment, at Creative-I site, public lecture at the Davenport Hotel, Dublin, Ireland, June 9, 2009.

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